Navigating Dennard, Carbon and Moore: Scenarios for the Future of NSF Advanced Computational Infrastructure

Andrew A Chien; Mark Dietrich. 8 April, 2022.
Communicated by Andrew Chien.


After a long period of steady improvement, scientific computing equipment (SCE, or HPC) is being disrupted by the end of Dennard scaling, the slowing of Moore’s Law, and new challenges to reduce carbon, to fight climate change. What does this mean for the future? We develop a system and portfolio model based on historical NSF XSEDE site systems, and apply it to examine potential technology scenarios and what they mean for future compute capacity, power consumption, carbon emissions, datacenter siting, and more.

Original Document

The original document is available in PDF (uploaded 8 April, 2022 by Andrew Chien).